The US midterm primaries have set the stage for a pivotal election year, with Democrats aiming to capitalize on their recent setbacks and flip key seats in the House and Senate. The races are a mix of moderate and progressive candidates, each tailored to appeal to diverse voter bases across the country.
One of the most closely watched races is in New Jersey, where the absence of a Republican incumbent due to a mysterious medical leave has created an opportunity for Democrats. Rebecca Bennett, a former healthcare executive and US Navy veteran, has been nominated to take on Republican Congressman Tom Kean Jr. in a suburban swing district that Trump narrowly won last year. The race has taken on renewed importance as constituents question Kean Jr.'s whereabouts during his extended absence from Congress.
In Iowa, Democrats are spending big in rematches in districts that produced some of the closest House races in the country two years ago. A moderate challenger, Josh Turek, is running on a 'prairie populism' message, giving Democrats hope of winning the US Senate seat that is open after incumbent Joni Ernst decided not to run. Turek's life story, including his birth with spina bifida due to his father's exposure to Agent Orange in Vietnam, and his use of a wheelchair and status as a Paralymic gold medalist, adds a layer of personal appeal that could resonate with voters in a challenging environment for Republicans.
California's redrawn maps have given Democrats an advantage in the heavily blue state, and the governor's race is shaping up to be a tight contest. Early results show a close race between Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra, a former Biden administration official, and Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News personality endorsed by Trump. The race is still up in the air, with the billionaire Tom Steyer running as a progressive in third place.
In Los Angeles, the Democratic mayor Karen Bass has advanced to the November general election, while her opponents remain locked in a tight battle. The city's nonpartisan primary system means the top two vote-getters advance, regardless of party affiliation.
The internal fights within the Democratic Party, including debates on ideology, economic populism, and how to take on Trump, have also played out in several races. Scott Wiener, a Democratic state senator known for championing housing and LGBTQ+ legislation, won a coveted seat to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is retiring. The race is now between Wiener and two other candidates, with the outcome uncertain.
Despite the Democratic efforts to capitalize on Trump's low approval rating, some Republican contests could give them a boost. In New Mexico, Republican Greg Cunningham faced no formal opposition in the primary race to take on Congressman Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat. The seat is one of only 13 congressional districts that voted for Trump in 2024 while sending a Democrat to the House. The DCCC has criticized Cunningham, while praising Vasquez as a 'trusted leader'.
In Montana, a red state that had a Democratic senator until 2024, Republicans have rallied around Aaron Flint, Trump's choice to succeed Representative Ryan Zinke. While the race is rated as 'likely Republican', Democrats sense an opportunity due to Trump's falling popularity. The Democratic field includes former gubernatorial candidate Ryan Busse and union organizer Sam Forstag, though the race has not been called as of Tuesday night.
In South Dakota, state attorney general Marty Jackley won the Republican primary in the race to replace Governor Dusty Johnson, who is running for a different office. Jackley, with Trump's endorsement, overcame his Republican opponent James Bialota, positioning himself to become the state's lone representative in Congress. The race has implications for the direction of the Republican Party.
The US midterm primaries have highlighted the complex dynamics and strategic considerations at play in the upcoming general election. While Democrats aim to capitalize on recent setbacks and flip key seats, Republicans are seeking to maintain their hold on power. The outcomes of these races will shape the political landscape and influence the broader issues voters are grappling with since 2024.
